Truth or Bogus: Week 10 Recap
Article by Mitch Lawson (Sleeperbot: @PeteCarroline)
Get serious folks, it’s time for a playoff push.
With only 3 more weeks in the fantasy season the next few Sundays are going to be nervous affairs. The waiver wire should be a place of knee-jerk decisions and Hail Mary pickups, as most leagues have passed their trade deadlines.
There’s still value to be had on the waiver wire, there’s bound to be a few big injuries from here on out and there’s always the chance of a breakout star. But how do you know what to do during this important time?
Truth or Bogus is back to break down the biggest storylines of the week and help you set your lineup, make waiver moves or get the edge over your opponent.
Let’s get started right away with the first headline.
Austin Ekeler is a Threat to Melvin Gordon’s Workload
TRUTH — I know it’s not what Melvin Gordon owners want to hear, but Austin Ekeler is a guy who needs to be rostered.
If Melvin Gordon was more of a pure running talent then I would expect his role wouldn’t change much. But the fact is that in just two games Ekeler has outdone Melvin Gordon on the ground AND through the air.
What’s more, when the Chargers were trying to close out the game and seal a victory, they went to Ekeler over Gordon. Gordon owners can hope that Ekeler’s costly fumble will put him in the doghouse but I truly doubt it.
The Chargers are on the outside of a playoff race and they will likely need to take full stock of what they have on their team. If Ekeler can truly be relied on then the Chargers will showcase him as either decent trade bait or a dependable pass-catching back.
Melvin Gordon won’t disappear by any means, but his ceiling now has a bona fide leak.
Rex Burkhead is Worth a Waiver Pickup
TRUTH — Burkhead is finally getting his shot in 2017, and looks pretty great so far.
Burkhead was hand-picked by Bellichick in the offseason, something that I thought might provide some value out of the gate. But instead the Partriots slowly incorporated him into their gameplan as they sorted out who was going to be useful to their offense.
It turns out, unsurprisingly, that Mike Gillislee is not the answer the Patriots were looking for. He was a healthy scratch which basically means he’s done being relevant in 2017. Burkhead could easily pick up the 10+ touches that Gillislee was getting, and he’ll also have use in the passing game as well.
Being that the Patriots utilize the screen pass better than most teams in this league, Burkhead’s pass-catching ability shouldn’t be overlooked.
Moving forward, Burkhead should see 15+ total touches and should reach 50 yards most weeks with a TD possibility. This all makes him a decent FLEX with a dependable floor.
Robert Woods is a Must-Start
TRUTH— Even against Xavier Rhodes and the Minnesota defense, Woods is a guy you need to have in your lineup.
Sammy Watkins has thus far been a shaky WR1 for the Rams. He’s a home run swing as far as receivers go. He has caught more than 3 passes in just two games this season.
Woods, alternatively, has been dependable and consistent in his role as a possession receiver. He’s been targeted more than any receiver in LA, and he’s converted that into some serious production. He’s logged over 50 yards in all but 2 of the Rams’ games, and he’s topped 100 yards twice.
Over the last 4 weeks, Woods is in the Top 15 in the league in catches and ranks 8th in yardage over that time frame.
The Rams newfound offensive prowess is benefitting Woods nicely. He’ll have a tougher matchup against the Vikings, but he’ll still be worth a start in which owners should expect 60 yards and a TD.
Kenyan Drake is Winning the Backfield Competition in Miami
TRUTH — It was anyone’s guess as to who was going to replace Jay Ajayi, but it looks as if Drake is telling fantasy owners to “Just hold on, we’re going home.”
*crickets*
Yeah well, bad jokes aside… Kenyan Drake is the real deal for the Dolphins. He has managed an unbelievable 6.8 YPC this season thanks largely in part to his performance after Ajayi’s departure.
Williams has been featured just as much, but has accomplished a fraction of what Drake has. The Dolphins are on the outside of the playoff picture, but they have a shot of making a wild card spot if they can play good football from here on out.
They would be wise to find out what Drake is capable of in a feature role, but in the meantime at the very least he is an RB2.
Jordy Nelson Needs to Be On Your Fantasy Bench
TRUTH — I gotta give myself credit, I really called this one. Man oh man I hate being right.
Way back in Week 6 I predicted that Jordy Nelson would not only fall to a WR2 after Rodgers’ injury, but that WR2 might be his absolute ceiling.
Nelson is not the same receiver without Rodgers. He has failed to top 35 yards without number 12 behind center. He’s a shell of the player that he was at the start of the season and it sadly means he needs to be on your bench.
Should you drop him? Well no. Not yet anyways. Hang on and see if he and Hundley can build some rapport. There are some great matchups for Green Bay and they are still in the playoff picture at this point in time.
It’s really difficult to consider leaving Jordy Nelson on the bench if you spent a 1st or 2nd round pick on him in the draft, but you have to know when to cut your losses.
Jordy Nelson simply poses too much risk of a bust game to be started at this point.
That’s it for Truth or Bogus this week. All truths by the way… Maybe that bodes well for everyone heading into week 11.
Here’s hoping your team remains successful, and your playoff run is deep.
Until next time…
Mitch Lawson is a Canadian based Fantasy Football enthusiast and lifelong Seahawks fan. If you have questions or comments, send him an email at mitchlawsonff@gmail.com. You can also find him on:
Sleeperbot: @PeteCarolline
reddit: Mitch1516
Twitter: @MitchLawson1
