Truth or Bogus: Week 12 Recap
Article by Mitch Lawson
Fantasy Football fans… if the fantasy football season were mount Everest, we’d be crossing into the Death Zone. We are approaching Event Horizon, we are on the home stretch, we are at the two minute warning.
Week 12’s close marks many teams “last chance”. Unless you were already 3–8, your fate was likely not sealed until this week. Or maybe you’re like almost everyone else; using this week to clinch your position in the postseason.
Whether you need a Hail Mary or just to avoid a bomb, you have to prepare. With all the news that comes flying out of each week, isn’t it best to be able to separate the crucial from the ignore-able?
That’s why you’ re here. Truth or Bogus is your weekly barometer in the fantasy football shit-storm.
We’re going to break down 5 of the biggest storylines for you this week, so let’s kick things off with a comeback story for the ages…
Josh Gordon Will Save Your Fantasy Team
BOGUS — But for his sake, and even for your sake, I hope I’m wrong.
Don’t misunderstand me, I am very excited for the return of Josh Gordon. I think, with time, he could be the piece that the Browns build around in order to right their ship. But for this year, I don’t see it happening the way many people see it.
Josh Gordon had one of the most amazing “First 30” games of any receiver of all time. He managed 2,451 yards in 30 games, and managed 14 TDs over that period. That’s an average of over 10 fantasy points-per-game.
Since his return has nothing to do with injury, why would I doubt him?
A couple reasons actually….
First, he’s still a Cleveland Brown. That’s an easy joke, but it’s a relevant fact. Even IF Hue Jackson can be believed when he said that the Browns will use him “as much as we can”, that means he’ll be the number 1 wide receiver. For argument sake let’s say he replaces Corey Coleman and improves on his numbers. He would have to average another 4 fantasy points-per-game to be a reliable WR2. Deshone Kizer has still not thrown for 300 yards, and he’s only cleared 250 once. Through 10 games he has thrown just 5 TOUCHDOWNS!!! That’s not the type of guy you need if you’re going to milk Josh Gordon for everything that he’s worth.
Second, the Browns schedule is brutal. They have one more game against a bottom 12 pass defense (Week 14 against Green Bay), the rest are solid teams with good defenses. Josh Gordon will not find himself in many friendly situations and I have no reason to believe he is a Antonio Brown/DeAndre Hopkins type player who can succeed in almost any matchup regardless of his QBs efficiency.
Lastly, Josh Gordon has spent three full years away from professional football. He’s best treated as a 26 year-old rookie at this point. He needs to re-learn the system, build rapport, gain trust in order to start succeeding… And that’s not even mentioning staying out of trouble and staying fit!
It’s a very risky play to start Gordon this week, and my money is on him having one 10 point fantasy game in Week 14 and then not much else. That’s not the type of player you are going to want to depend on in the most important weeks of fantasy football.
Jacquizz Rodgers is Overtaking Doug Martin
TRUTH — Doug Martin has left the door wide open for other backs after inefficiency and now injury. Rodgers is the immediate benificiary.
Doug Martin stepped back into the starting role in week 5 after serving his suspension and looked to get on track right away with a stat line of 74 yards and a touchdown, then followed that up with a game of 53 yards, a TD and a 2 PT conversion. Unbeknownst to fantasy owners, these would be his best games.
Martin has failed to top 75 yards on the ground, and has not managed more than 8 points over the last 6 weeks. It’s not for lack of usage either, as he has averaged just over 15 carries per game, and nobody else has challenged him.
Until Jacquizz Rodgers that is. Rodgers managed two 10+ point games in Martin’s absence, and when Martin went down with a concussion this week Rodgers stepped in and did well, rushing for 4 yards per carry.
If Martin misses time, Rodgers should see enough action to warrant a start. If Martin does start, then I would expect Rodgers to put the pressure on him.
Doug Martin looked primed for a big season after being humbled by a failed PED test. But it looks like perhaps his performance was enhanced last year, as he’s turned into an absolutely pedestrian running back.
Jimmy Garoppolo is Worth a Pickup
BOGUS — I really like Garoppolo long-term, but just like Gordon he now joins a team that doesn’t give him a lot of opportunity to succeed.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been pretty good in the limited time he’s started in the NFL. While starting for the Patriots during Brady’s deflategate scandal, he managed a 68% completion percentage and 250 yards per game. Last week he came into the game late and managed to connect on both of his attempted passes and even scored a TD.
All good things, but he’s handcuffed by the team around him. The 49ers have one of the weakest receiving corps in the NFL, and their running game isn’t strong enough to keep defenses honest.
He gets two decent matchups (HOU and TEN), but he’ll be in tough this week against the Bears, and he also has to face Jacksonville in fantasy championship week.
Bottom line, the 49ers may have snatched up their new starting QB when they traded for Garoppolo, but he was always meant to be a long-term project. He’s going to get comfortable in this offense over the next few weeks, and the 49ers will try to build the offense around him.
This year though, he’s not fantasy-relevant.
Kareem Hunt Will Cost You Your Fantasy Championship
TRUTH — It’s really sad to say, mostly because it’s not his fault. But Kareem Hunt is going to burn his fantasy owners in the playoffs.
The Chiefs freefall as of late has hurt Kareem Hunt more than anyone else in KC. The brake-pumping that the offense has been doing has made them one-dimensional, and defenses can simply stack the box to contain Hunt and challenge Smith to throw into man coverage. This has completely de-fanged the Chiefs, and has cost Hunt his opportunities.
After 7 straight double-digit fantasy performances, Kareem Hunt has failed to hit that mark in 4 straight games. He’s been held to less than 40 rushing yards in 2 of his last 3 games.
It’s obvious that he’s hit the “rookie wall”. But unlike most situations where this occurs, the fault lies mostly elsewhere and not with Hunt.
What this means is that if you are in a dynasty or keeper league, you need to keep Hunt over this summer. The Chiefs will work the kinks out and continue to build their offense as more of an explosive one. They have rookie QB Patrick Mahomes waiting in the wings, and after the cliff dive that KC has taken this year they might flirt with the idea of starting him in 2018.
Until then, however, Hunt is a liability. Despite decent matchups against leaky defenses, Hunt is a player who could end up costing owners week in and week out. He will likely fail to hit double digits in at least 3 of his next 5 games, if not all of them, and that could cripple your fantasy team.
Leonard Fournette’s Problems Should Worry Owners
BOGUS — While Fournette has floundered in the last couple weeks, he is a dependable RB1.
Coming off an injury and a team-imposed 1-game benching, Fournette has had two games of less than 5 fantasy points. So naturally as we approach the playoffs, fantasy owners are getting a bit worried.
Fournette is just fine everyone. He has battled through his ankle injury and his disciplinary game off and he is likely going to be at or near 100% through the next 4 weeks. He has some great matchups too; the Colts, Texans and the 49ers are on the slate, as well as one tough game in week 14 against Seattle.
He still averages 20.8 touches per game, good for 3rd in the league behind the now-suspended Ezekiel Elliott and LeVeon Bell. So even if he has a bad game he’s a good shot for 6–7 points with touchdown upside. In the coming weeks in games where he has a real chance to shine, he could see three 10-point games.
He’s got his bad games out of his system. Fire him up and prepare for takeoff!
That’s it for Truth or Bogus: Week 12 Recap edition. Check back every week for more in-depth analysis and solid fantasy advice.
Be sure to follow me on Medium, Sleeperbot, or twitter to read all my articles as they are released. Take care football fans!
Mitch Lawson is a Canadian based Fantasy Football enthusiast and lifelong Seahawks fan. If you have questions or comments, send him an email at mitchlawsonff@gmail.com. You can also find him on:
Sleeperbot: @PeteCarolline
Twitter: @MitchLawson1
