Truth or Bogus: Week 13 Recap
Article by Mitch Lawson
And that does it! We are officially entering the playoffs. What a long road this has been. Some playoff teams have battled huge injuries, disappointing games and nightmare close defeats.
But if you’re reading this, it means you still have something to play for. So congratulations are in order. You battled your buddies and you now have a shot at the championship.
Unless you’re on a bye, you can’t just take it easy this week. It’s go time. You have to decide which players are trending up or down, and nothing gets you more prepared than a healthy does of Truth or Bogus.
As always, I’m breaking down the top fantasy headlines coming out of week 13. I’ll tell you whether I think each headline is, of course, truth or bogus.
Let’s get right into things with the first headline.
Philip Rivers is the Playoff Streaming QB You Need to Own
TRUTH — Wow, unbelievably Philip Rivers has put himself right back into the QB1 conversation, and I think he is exactly that.
While you might think this is a little nuts, consider the following: Phillip Rivers has averaged 300 yards and 2 TDs per game since the bye week. He has faced 2 Top 5 QB defenses in that time frame and still averaged 20 fantasy points, and in his 2 games against below-average QB defenses he put up just under 70 points.
He now gets to face 3 straight below-average defenses. With Keenan Allen looking like the elite WR he was supposed to be, Melvin Gordon hovering around 90–100 scrimmage yards per game, the defense helping them win games and a schedule where EVERY game is going to matter…. Phillip Rivers could just win you your fantasy league.
Unless you have Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz or Kirk Cousins, you have to consider Phillip Rivers as your QB in the upcoming weeks. He’s honestly that enticing. Owners of Jared Goff, Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan especially need to consider him due to their own QBs struggling and/or facing multiple tough defenses.
Rivers is honestly a weekly threat for 30 fantasy points in standard each and every week from here on out, and I’d be willing to bet that he won’t drop below 20 points in any of the next 3 weeks.
Owners Should Consider Benching Russell Wilson in Week 14
BOGUS — There’s been way too much rumbling about this in the last day or so, and I want to put it to rest.
No, you should not bench Russell Wilson against the Jags #1 Defense.
“Why not? It’s fantays playoffs, you gotta roll the dice! The Jaguars are the best defense against QBs by far this year.”
Yeah yeah I hear you. But it’s BOGUS… and I’ll tell you exactly why.
It’s not enough to just say, “The Jags have the best defense so maybe I shouldn’t start my guys”. You also should be asking “Why have they been so good?”. The answer to that questions largely has to deal with matchups.
Check out the QBs that the Jags have faced this year, along with their overall rankings:
Week 1 — Tom Savage: -0.9 Fantasy Points. Also DeShaun Watson: 7.7 Fantasy Points (One Half of the game)
Week 2– Marcus Mariota (QB 21): 16.15 Fantasy Points
Week 3 — Joe Flacco (QB 26): -2.6 Fantasy Points. Also Ryan Mallett: 7.3 Fantasy Points
Week 4 — Josh McCown (QB 9) — 7.2 Fantasy Points
Week 5 — Ben Roethlisberger (QB 12)— 5.7 Points
Week 6 — Jared Goff (QB 8) — 12.1 Fantasy Points
Week 7 — Jacoby Brissett (QB 22) — 13.1 Fantasy Points
Week 9— Andy Dalton (QB 17) — 6.7 Fantasy Points
Week 10— Philip Rivers (QB 11) — 19.65 Fantasy Points
Week 11 — DeShone Kizer (QB25) — 8.15 Fantasy Points
Week 12 — Blaine Gabbert (QB 37)— 21.75 Fantasy Points
Week 13 — Jacoby Brissett (QB 21) — 13.3 Fantasy Points
The Jaguars have yet to face a Top 5 QB. They have had the easiest road of any team in the NFL. Even then, they allowed a 21.75 point game from Blaine Gabbert, they allowed a 19.65 Fantasy Point game to Philip Rivers.
As for the good games?
They did hold Josh McCown to 7.2 Fantasy points, but in that game the Jags allowed for 2 TDs, however neither were passing Touchdowns. They also allowed only 12.1 Fantasy Points to Jared Goff in a 27–17 loss. Yeah, that’s right, three touchdowns were scored in that game, but only 1 was a passing TD. Finally, they did have a really good game against Ben Roethlisberger early in the season when he looked like hot garbage.
Look, I’m not saying that the Jaguars Defense isn’t good. But I am saying if they had to face Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, or Russell Wilson AND they were able to hold them to low games…Then maybe I’d believe it.
But the fact remains, Russell Wilson is unlike anything the Jaguars have seen this year. He has thrown for 2 TDs in all 7 of the Seahawks games after the Bye Week. The Seahawks are gunning for a playoff spot and I can guarantee the Seattle Defense will allow the Jaguars to keep pace, meaning Wilson will be involved. The Seahawks also have just ONE Rushing TD that doesn’t belong to Russell Wilson, so there’s less chance with him than anyone else when it comes to RBs vulturing TDs.
You have ridden Russell Wilson to glory. Ride him into war.
Kerwynn Williams Is Worth a Waiver Pickup
BOGUS — No sorry RB desperate fantasy owners, Kerwynn Williams is not your answer.
Unless Adrian Peterson sits in week 14 (which is unlikely), Williams has likely seen his last fantasy-relevant game.
True, he gained 97 yards on 16 carries, but he didn’t do anything that I wouldn’t have expected a healthy Adrian Peterson to do. If he had perhaps had a role in the passing game, then maybe I could see Arians and co. involving him more. But with their decision to let Andre Ellington go, it’s apparent that they are expecting their running backs to, well…run!
DJ Foster was expected to be the main beneficiary of Peterson’s game off, but he was utilized in the passing game more than anything. He could factor in next game if Peterson is out, which would definitely hurt Williams.
I’d also be more willing to believe Williams was a risk to AP if the Cardinals were perhaps looking for the RB of the future. But they’re not. They have David Johnson waiting to return, they don’t need to test the waters with anyone else.
AP was doing a great job before he got hurt, and I full expect him to regain his full workload next week. He is not going to lose his job after one half-decent game by a backup.
I’d rather have Peyton Barber or Mike Davis personally. Speaking of which…
Mike Davis is Worth a Waiver Pickup
TRUTH — If you need a running back, I think Davis is your best bet this week.
The young rusher managed 65 yards on 16 carries and caught 4 passes for 37 yards. This was in a game against the second-best run defense in the NFL and it was also reported that Davis was battling a groin injury.
100 scrimmage yards against an elite defense while hobbled? That’s good enough to roll the dice on any day. But he also gets the benefit of playing for Seattle. The Seahawks desperately need a starting RB that they can rely on, and they also play against the 17th, 2nd and 12th worst defenses in the league over the next 3 weeks.
J.D. McKissic is still there, granted. But he only ran one time for a loss and managed 1 catch for a TD. So while his fantasy day was decent, his real-world usefulness is limited.
Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks feature Davis over the next 3 weeks. He’s got the potential to be a late-season breakout player.
Both Denver WRs Cannot Be Started
TRUTH — 88% of owners have Emmanuel Sanders on their team, it’s time to move on. 98% of teams have Demaryius, and not one should consider starting him next week.
It’s hard to part with someone you likely drafted in the 4th-6th round, but you have to make room for useful players. The Broncos are in a free fall with no sign on the horizon of a comeback. Siemian is hurting both Sanders and Thomas in ways that aren’t fixable over a few practices.
Maybe the Broncos make a QB change, but beyond that there is no reason to be hopeful.
At least in the case of Demaryius he’s been targeted 18 times over the past 2 games, even if it was for a total of 7 catches for 45 yards. Sanders has been targeted 21 times over the past 3 games, he’s turned that 7 catches for 38 yards.
These are abysmal totals. Both players are on serious red alert. If you own Sanders, consider dropping him in order to pick up Jermaine Kearse, DeDe Westbrook or Josh Doctson. If you’re the Demaryius owner, put him on the bench for this week and consider playing him against the Colts in week 15 if you’re still in contention and he sees some positives against the Jets in Week 14.
The Broncos Offense is a mess. But hey, maybe they can entice a Manning away from a sputtering team just before retirement…?!
Jermaine Kearse is the Top WR Waiver Pickup This Week
BOGUS — What?! But Mitch, he has 262 yards in 2 games, how can I not get in on this?!
In all honesty, he’s well worth a waiver pick, but I do think there are better options out there, and you want to claim guys who you could eventually start, and I don’t see myself starting Kearse in any of the next 3 weeks.
You can pick up Kearse if you want, at this late point of the season it’s not the worst idea in the world to roll the dice and see what becomes of Kearse against some quality defenses.
That’s part of his problem, his schedule is going to get tough. The Saints are an above average defense, but first he has to face the Broncos, and in fantasy championship week he gets the Rams. It’s possible that he returns value on volume alone, but I’d rather go with someone else.
For example, Dede Westbrook. He has hauled in 12 of 19 targets for 119 yards over the last 2 games and he showed incredible yard-after-catch ability in each of those. He does have to face the Seahawks next week, but after that he gets the 49ers and Texans in back to back weeks. The Jaguars are also steeped in the middle of a huge playoff battle, they will be firing on all cylinders to try and make that happen.
For my money, I’d rather pick up PWestbrook now and bench him for week 14. If he has a big game then you can feel confident starting him in weeks 15 and 16 against these bad defenses.
But as far as Kearse goes, I’m just not convinced it’s a stat line I can trust.
That’s it for the final Truth or Bogus of the regular season. Be sure to check back every week as I’ll continue breaking down the top news stories through the fantasy playoffs!
Take care, football fans!
Mitch Lawson is a Canadian based Fantasy Football enthusiast and lifelong Seahawks fan. If you have questions or comments, send him an email at mitchlawsonff@gmail.com. You can also find him on:
Sleeperbot: @PeteCarolline
reddit: Mitch1516
Twitter: @MitchLawson1
