Truth Or Bogus? — Week 14 Recap
Article by Mitch Lawson
The first week of fantasy playoffs is over, and it is time for the elite to battle it out in the semi-finals.
If you’re reading this that means that you are one of the lucky ones. This week matters to you so you’re absorbing all the information that you can.
I wish you luck. But more practical than that; I provide you insight with another Truth or Bogus? Where I break down the week’s top news stories and label them Truth or Bogus.
Let’s get started right now with our top headline.
Carson Wentz Owners Should Consider Starting Nick Foles
TRUTH — Carson Wentz’s ACL tear is a massive blow to fantasy owners. But Nick Foles might be a suitable replacement.
It’s understandable if you don’t want to trust Foles. His last stint as a starter was nothing to write home about. After an incredible 2013 with the Eagles he fell from graces in 2014. But to be fair, in 2014 he lost his favourite wide receiver (DeSean Jackson) and his rock-solid running back regressed (LeSean McCoy). So he struggled. He was then shipped to the awful Rams in 2015 and was unable to squeeze anything out of Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt (Who could have?). He has since been relegated to a backup QB.
But, I think the Eagles and Carson Wentz owners still have a hope with Nick Foles. He will be at the helm of arguably the best receiver corps of his career, and he has had success in this city before. Despite his troubles on the surface he has maintained a career completion percentage of over 60% and has a better than 2:1 TD to INT ratio.
Not only that, but the Eagles have a juicy schedule. They face the Giants on the road next week and then the Raiders at home. Plus, the Eagles are going to want to win these games, as it’s going to be imperative to finish with the 1st seed in the NFC and earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye.
To be sure, Carson Wentz’s injury is devastating to everyone in Eagles nation and fantasy football, but there is hope with Foles.
Brandin Cooks Owners Should Consider Benching Him
BOGUS — I admit it has been a rough couple of weeks with Brandin Cooks, but owners should keep the faith.
It’s fairly clear to me that Cooks’ struggles are connected to Brady. Tom Brady has had two of his worst games of the season in weeks 13 and 14, and that might have cost some owners their season. But a QB like Tom Brady will not struggle forever.
As far as Chris Hogan’s return? While I think it’s not the best news for Brandin Cooks, I feel like it’s an entirely different role that each wide receiver plays in this offense. Cooks functions more as a deep threat, as he currently sits 6th in the league in Yards-per-Catch, while Hogan ranks 43rd in the same category. Hogan is a “Move the chains” possession receiver with some vertical threat sprinkled in for good measure.
Hogan’s return is more detrimental to Danny Amendola than it is to Cooks. Brady will return to form, and there’s a prime opportunity in Week 15 to do so. Oh sure, the Steelers look foreboding on paper, but the Patriots and Steelers have always had barn-burners when they’ve met. They now meet in a huge game that will help to determine AFC supremacy. Both teams will be showcasing their offensive prowess and I expect that it should be a 3 or 4 TD game for each team.
Cooks and Brady will be just fine, and I’d be happy to take each of them into battle next week.
Kareem Hunt is Back!
TRUTH — He likely cost quite a few teams their fantasy season, but those who survived until now should be thrilled with Hunt’s last game.
So many positives came out of this game for Hunt:
- The Chiefs used him extensively and saw great results doing so. They are now 5–0 in games where Hunt rushes for 100 yards. They are also 4–0 when he gets 20 carries.
- He saw his Yards Per Carry climb to over 4.5 for the first time since week 7 and his confidence seemed to be sky-high as well.
- He scored his first TD since WEEK THREE!!!!!
- His upcoming schedule is super friendly, he gets the Chargers and Dolphins, who rank 6th and 9th in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
The doubt was never in my mind that Kareem Hunt, my doubts came from the Chiefs utilization of the electric Rookie of the Year candidate.
I don’t have the most faith in the world in Andy Reid, but he has handed off play-calling duties to Matt Nagy, so perhaps the Chiefs are finally trying to shake up their offense.
Kareem Hunt owners have been patient. If you’re out there and you’re alive you might have just weathered the storm, and the clouds are about to part.
If Healthy, Fire Up Aaron Rodgers In Week 15
TRUTH — I’d definitely rather see him play a weaker defense, but Rodgers is a must-start if he plays this week.
I realize there is some concern floating around out there because Rodgers is coming off a serious collarbone injury and he is set to play two Top 10 defenses to close out the fantasy season.
But please, dedicated readers, do NOT overthink this.
In the games where Rodgers played the entire game this year, his lowest score was an 20.65 effort (6 point TD scoring) against the Seahawks in Week 1. He has averaged 26.73 Fantasy points per game over his 5 full games played.
The Panthers are the 10th ranked Defense in terms of points allowed to the QB. But that’s not enough to slow down a Packers offense that has been winning WITHOUT Rodgers. Now imagine them WITH Rodgers.
Unless you are the Tom Brady, Russell Wilson (maybe, watch the weather report for Sunday’s game) or the Philip Rivers owner (seriously), I would at least consider starting Aaron Rodgers.
Marquise Goodwin is the Top Waiver Wire Pickup for Week 15
TRUTH — For sure he is. Even though I’ve been talking seemingly non-stop about Dede Westbrook, I can’t deny his upside.
Westbrook also needs to be owned as he has two unbelievably friendly matchups, but the real target is Goodwin. Back to back 100 yard games (Basically, Week 13 he had 99 yards) with Garoppolo at the helm and a supremely favourable matchup agains the Titans in Week 15 help make that plain to see.
He has an outside chance to make it to 1,000 yards this year in a season where Brian Hoyer and CJ Beathard were the QBs for 85% of the year. He’s racked up at least 68 yards in 5 straight games and he has nobody behind him on the depth chart that’s challenging his workload.
If you can’t snag Goodwin, Dede Westbrook is a great pickup. But if you can snag Marquise, then he should be considered by any owner who is thin at WR.
That’s it for Truth or Bogus this week. Thanks as always for checking in, and I’ll see you next week for my Fantasy Championship edition, and the very last Truth or Bogus? for 2017.
Mitch Lawson is a Canadian based Fantasy Football enthusiast and lifelong Seahawks fan. If you have questions or comments, send him an email at mitchlawsonff@gmail.com. You can also find him on:
Sleeperbot: @PeteCarolline
reddit: Mitch1516
Twitter: @MitchLawson1
