Truth or Bogus: Week 2 Recap

Article by Mitch Lawson (Sleeperbot: @PeteCarroline)

Week 2 is officially in the books, and we are slowly stepping right into the heart of fantasy football season.

Weeks 1 and 2 are where you are most likely going to find difference makers that were overlooked during the fantasy draft. We get to see which guys have earned a spot on the everyday roster and even some players who are developing weekly fantasy value and can be relied on from here on out.

On the other hand, we start to see which players are starting to become a bust, or whose production at least makes us think that way.

By now you’re hopefully sitting 2–0, or at least 1–1. But if you’re at 0–2 and trying to find a way to right the ship, it can be crucial to make the right choices.

That’s where Truth or Bogus comes in. I break down the top headlines from each week and give my two cents on whether they can be taken seriously or not.

Let’s jump right in with the first headline of the week.


Todd Gurley Has Officially Regained Star Status

Gurley has had a couple good games and is the big talk in the league. (LA Times)

BOGUS — He’s looked way better, but I’m not ready to label him an every-week starter just yet.

First off, these two games were at home against the Colts and the Redskins; two teams who were in the Bottom-10 in run defense last year. Secondly, how often can we really expect the Rams to have a positive game-script this year like they did in weeks 1 and 2. Finally, he has scored 3 TDs in 2 games. That’s not likely going to be a sustainable number for him in this offense.

The Rams will still have to face the Cardinals and Seahawks twice each, plus the Vikings and Giants on the road. In fact their midseason schedule for Running defenses ranks as the second most difficult in the league according to fftoolbox.scout.com

This is the ideal time to sell Todd Gurley. The other owner will see a road game against the 49ers next on the list and will want a piece of that action. If you can manage to get a player like Devonta Freeman or Ezekiel Elliott for Gurley then do so. If you can package him out and get Melvin Gordon or Ty Montgomery plus another upgrade elsewhere, that’s a huge plus.

Let someone else hang onto Gurley as his production starts to slow.


Samaje Perine Needs To Be Targeted After Injury to Kelley

Perine is expected to have an increased role with Kelley sidelined. But I’m not buying it.

BOGUS — Robert Kelley is not a great running back, and now he’s out with an injured rib, so why not go after Samaje Perine?

A couple reasons, actually. First, a rib injury isn’t likely to keep an NFL running back on the shelf for more than a week or two. Secondly, Chris Thompson is a much better option for people looking to capitalize on Rob Kelley’s injury.

Samaje Perine put himself into coach Gruden’s doghouse after an early pre-season fumble. He’s not going to get thrust into a 3-down role just because Kelley is on the shelf for a week or two.

Thompson was incredibly efficient with his touches, and he obviously has more agility than Samaje Perine. Perine is cut from the same cloth as Frank Gore and Jerome Bettis as a power back, but he’s simply not ready to be a lead back.

That was the story in preseason, it will be the same story in week 3. Don’t rush to pick up Perine, hang onto that waiver priority or acquisition budget for someone else.


Chris Carson is Winning the Seattle RB Timeshare

Carson looks like a true starter for the Seahawks. (cbssports.com)

TRUTH — Chris Carson has a legitimate shot at being the lead back in Seattle.

I was all over Sleeperbot forums this preseason telling people not to sleep on Chris Carson. He obviously had the skills that the ‘Hawks were looking for, and Pete Carroll and John Schneider are notorious for giving long shots a chance and having them take over starting roles. Now, in the last game, he led the Seattle RB corps in snaps.

Call it a brag, but I’ve gotta establish some credibility don’t I?

Russell Wilson had no business being the starter in his first year. The Seahawks had just paid over $8-million per year for Matt Flynn, and they had used Tarvaris Jackson as the starter for the entire preceding season. But the third-round pick showed he should be the starter and the Seahawks rolled him out week 1, and the rest is history.

Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse were both Undrafted Free Agents who had to overtake big name players such as Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and Percy Harvin in order to become the top 2 WR in Seattle.

Even Thomas Rawls had to overtake 2nd round pick Christine Michael in order to become the starter. So it’s not a stretch to imagine that Carson could be the primary back before too long.

Nobody is handed anything in Pete Carroll’s team. You have to be the best option at the position, and competition is not only welcomed…it’s encouraged.

Feel free to use up a bench spot on Chris Carson, and if he’s available on the waiver wire he’s worth a long look.


Andy Dalton Needs to Be Dropped

This could be the beginning of the end of the Dalton era in Cincy. (Steve Flynn — USA Today)

TRUTH — It’s time to give up the dream, Dalton owners.

While there’s some reason to be optimistic (the firing of Ken Zampese, A.J. Green healthy, easier schedule ahead), there’s much more reason to be a pessimist.

Every year Andy Dalton gets some sleeper consideration in preseason. This year the storyline was AJ Green’s return and an improved run game behind the three-headed attack of rookie Joe Mixon, Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill.

In reality, the Bengals have plenty of issues that won’t help Dalton come back. The Offensive Line is not protecting him, the run game has been an utter disappointment, and Marvin Lewis and his coaching crew have been completely out-coached by the Ravens and Texans.

Andy Dalton will struggle again in week 3 before getting a chance to redeem himself against the Browns. But my bet is that 20 point games will be few and far between for Dalton this year.


J.J. Nelson’s 18 Fantasy Points Is a Sign Of Things To Come

Nelson’s performance over the last two weeks (Sports Illustrated)

TRUTH — Carson Palmer is going to need a second Wide Receiver to sustain the type of offense that the Cardinals need.

John Brown is completely unreliable. Mostly due to things beyond his control, but unreliable nonetheless. In his only healthy game he managed just 32 yards, and his success in previous years has been spotty at best.

With Fitzgerald set to leave the NFL soon, they Cardinals need to find a reliable WR1. That guy is not going to be John Brown, it’s going to be J.J. Nelson.

Get him if you can and see what he can do from here on out.


That’s it for Truth or Bogus this week. Check back every week for more analysis on the previous week’s top storylines.

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