Truth or Bogus: Week 6 Recap
Article by Mitch Lawson (Sleeperbot: @PeteCarroline)
What a week.
The 2017 season has already been marked by some of the biggest injuries imaginable, and now we can add one of the top QBs in football to that list with Aaron Rodgers’ potentially season-ending shoulder injury.
There were also less serious injuries to Jameis Winston, Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. Plus the news of Tyler Eifert missing the rest of the season dropped on Wednesday.
There were some scares, including Tyreek Hill and Leonard Fournette, so needless to say there was some scrambling going on this weekend.
You’ll need to know what to do, and that’s where Truth or Bogus should help you out.
Last week, I told you to get Evan Engram, Jerick McKinnon and Adrian Peterson and start them. This week I have some more nuggets of wisdom.
So let’s dive right in with the first headline of the week.
Orleans Darkwa is a Juicy Waiver Wire Pickup
BOGUS— Yes, he’s worth picking up this week if you need help, but this comes with several caveats. The most important being that he’s more or less the ONLY player worth waivering this week.
Unless you’re in a league where Adrian Peterson or Jerrick McKinnon is still available, Darkwa is your best bet if you need a Running Back. After managing over 8 yards per carry in week 5 (and also likely due to the plethora of injuries they’re dealing with), the Giants decided to feature Darkwa. He turned that opportunity into 21 carries for 117 yards.
Darkwa looked solid the whole evening. Routinely finding big yardage and exploiting weaknesses against a usually-stout Denver defense. Wayne Gallman and Shane Vereen had smaller roles and acted as more of a change-of-pace and pass-catching back respectively.
Bear in mind that there are some red flags here.
First, the presence of Wayne Gallman (9 touches this week) and Shane Vereen could be an issue. Also it’s important to note that incumbent starter Paul Perkins is likely returning from injury next week, and we can also expect Sterling Shepard back soon which could change the offense a bit.
Secondly, this game was an absolutely unexpected source of positive gameflow for Darkwa. Who would have guessed that the Giants would be up by 2 scores in the 2nd half and would be salting the clock? The blueshirts are likely to be trailing in more games than not, which could seriously limit Darkwa’s upside.
Finally, his rest of season outlook could be shaky. He has just two more games against defenses that are in the Top-10 for allowing points to running backs. Through his career thus far, Darkwa has mostly been a 4 YPC type of player that has not been worth featuring.
The Giants were forced to feature someone and Darkwa had a big game. I don’t think there’s a ton of potential beyond that.
He has to face a Seahawks Defense that held Todd Gurley 3 Fantasy Points, then he is on a bye. That will give Perkins and Shepard a chance to return from injury and bring themselves back into the fold.
Darkwa might have some fantasy relevance in his Week 8 and 9 games against the Rams and 49ers, but beyond that he’s a FLEX at best.
Adrian Peterson is an RB2 After Week 6 Performance
TRUTH — When I predicted he’d get 75 yards and a touchdown in last week’s article, I didn’t expect him to get that done in the first quarter…
Seriously, how good was Adrian Peterson on Sunday? The Buccaneers are supposed to have a great run defense but they were absolutely shelled by AP. 10 minutes into the game and he was already at 76 yards and a touchdown.
Now, I know that there will be some critics that point out that the Cardinals were leading by 31 points at one point so Peterson got a lot of usage because of that. Fair enough, but that doesn’t explain how he managed to rack up 76 yards and a TD when the Cardinals were working up to a 14 point first quarter.
Adrian Peterson was obviously fed up with people telling him he was finished. When the Cardinals called and told him they wanted him he likely knew it might be his last chance to prove what he knew all along: All-Day Peterson is alive and well.
He has several really nice matchups over the next 6 weeks. 4 of those 6 games are against bottom-10 run defense teams.
Note that you should NOT rely on him into the playoffs, as David Johnson is likely to return sometime around Week 14, and there’s absolutely zero chance that Peterson will be featured in any legitimate capacity once Johnson is healthy.
Evan Engram is a TE1 Moving Forward
TRUTH — An electric, talented rookie in his own right, Evan Engram will likely be a reception monster thanks to the Giants’ injury woes.
Engram scared off a few people in week 5 with his 0-point effort, but he was able to bounce back in a huge way with 82 yards and a TD against the Denver.
This performance could very well be the launch pad for the rest of his season. Eli Manning loves to throw the ball, attempting at least 35 passes in all but one game this season. On that note, Engram’s big game came on a day where Manning only attempted 19 passes, completing 11 of them (5 to Engram). Engram accounted for over half of Manning’s 128 yards.
Engram is a guy you’re going to want to keep if you got him. I’d even go so far as to say you could shop your top Tight End for RB or WR help and bank on Engram’s continuing success.
Honestly, Engram’s potential is sky-high, and I’m excited to see where it could go. With the volatility of the TE position and Gronkowski’s potential for injury, Engram could be not only a TE1, but the TE1 from here on out.
Jordy Nelson is a WR2 Following Rodgers Injury
BOGUS — Sorry to tell all of you Nelson owners, but things might actually end up worse than that.
While the Jordy Nelson of the last 3 full seasons could score fantasy points in all sorts of ways, this year’s Nelson has been really touchdown dependant.
In 2013/14/16, Nelson averaged close to 90 yards per game. His yardage this year: 48.3. He has been helped mightily by his 6 TDs through 6 games, and it’s the only reason he is a Top 5 WR. He’s a top-5 Fantasy WR, but when it comes to yardage he doesn’t even crack the top 25.
So unless Brett Hundley can manage to consistently get the Packers into the endzone like Rodgers did, Nelson could struggle to produce.
Davante Adams has been slowly inching towards being the team’s top WR, while Nelson has seemingly been more and more relegated to a redzone specialist. This was bound to happen sooner or later as Nelson starts to lose speed playing into his mid 30s, but it seems to be happening right now. Both Parker and Nelson will have to be at their very best to find relevance in a Hundley-led offense.
As for Brett Hundley’s chances of being a legitimate offensive juggernaut? Well, it could happen. He has been learning the game from Rodgers for the past couple seasons and will have some time to prepare. But his performance while filling in for Rodgers left alot to be desired. 157 yards in 3-and-a-half quarters of football with 3 INTs and a 39.3 passer rating are very suspect.
If you can Nelson for a WR1 now, then I’d suggest you do so. Things could start getting really ugly for the All-Pro receiver.
With Rodgers Hurt, Alex Smith is the #2 QB in Fantasy
BOGUS — Truthfully, this isn’t a major headline as much as it is an opportunity for me to give advice on what to do with Alex Smith.
My advice? Trade him.
Find the guy who just lost Rodgers or Winston or perhaps the Big Ben or Eli Manning owner and shop him to that guy.
This is a sell-high candidate if I have ever seen one. He’s a great athlete, don’t get me wrong, but he is playing way beyond his normal scope. It’s also worth pointing out that while he is the #2 scoring QB in fantasy right now. He has A)Not had a bye week yet, and B)been inconsistent. By that I mean he has played 6 games; 3 where he cleared 30 fantasy points, and 3 where he failed to get to 20 fantasy points.
What might keep Smith going is the fact that they are likely going to be in some close games from here on out. There are not any absolute laughers on their schedule.
But beyond that, this is a guy who has been the #16/19/17/24 QB since he has been with the Chiefs. That’s through some of Jamaal Charles’ best years, Travis Kelce’s best season, and a 1,000 yard receiving yard season with Maclin.
So you’re telling me a guy whose never cracked the Top 15 is going to be the #2 QB from here on out?
It won’t happen. Trade him away, you can act like you’re doing the Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson owner a favour when really you’re turning a profit.
Smith has had a great season and is a real-life MVP candidate thus far. But by the end of the season I full expect him to settle in somewhere around the back-end of the Top 10 QBs.
That’s it for Truth or Bogus this week. Check back every week for more fantasy advice and make sure to follow me on Twitter for updates.
Mitch Lawson is a Canada-based Fantasy Football enthusiast and lifelong Seahawks fan. If you have questions or comments, send him an email at email@example.com. You can also find him on: