Truth or Bogus: Week 9 Recap
Article by Mitch Lawson (Sleeperbot: @PeteCarroline)
Another chapter closes on the story of the 2017 NFL season. This chapter was one of controversial events, surprise performances, and blowout victories.
I hope, for your sake, you were able to celebrate a blowout victory. I like to think that if you’ve been reading Truth or Bogus, you had a leg up on your competition and were able to pull out the win!
Whether you were or not, Truth or Bogus is back again to give you the best shot at winning. Every game from this point on has some real gravity, and you’re going to need to make the right decisions.
Keep the faith, and let’s dive into our first headline:
Devonta Freeman is a Bust
BOGUS — Things have been really rough for Freeman, but there’s not many better RBs to be holding while we enter the last stretch of the fantasy season.
The fact of the matter is if Freeman had found the endzone in even one game over these last 4, I think most people wouldn’t be voicing this concern.
He has some injury concerns at this point in time, and these need to be monitored. But if he is healthy, he’s a guy that you need to keep on your team. He’s got to play a couple tough games, but the Falcons are going to be leaning on him pretty soon.
Atlanta sits at 4–4 currently, and they are going to have to start asking their star RB to do more. Matt Ryan has been pretty disappointing thus far. He’s on pace for 4,300 yards and 22 TDs, and the Falcons’ record is reflective of that. If they are smart, they will utilize Freeman’s 4.5 YPC and agility to create some big plays for them. It might also help Matt Ryan in the passing game if they can find Freeman for more than 2 catches per game.
All of this is purely speculative, but here is something that isn’t:
- When the Falcons give Freeman carries, he produces. He has 4.5 YPC and he gains 7 yards per catch. Each of those numbers are better than LeVeon Bell, but Bell gets far more carries.
- The Falcons were a more successful team when Freeman is utilized more. They know that better than anyone. Last year they were 11–5, and they were rushing Freeman 15 times per game and he was catching 3.5 passes per game.
- The Falcons have one the best RB schedule over weeks 14–16.
- The Falcons will be fighting for a playoff spot from here on out. They sit behind Carolina and New Orleans, whom they get to play a total of 3 times over the next 6 weeks.
The Falcons coaching staff aren’t fools. Freeman will get utilized more so long as he is healthy.
DeAndre Hopkins Can Survive Without Watson
TRUTH — He had the potential to be the #1 WR with Watson at the helm, but he will still retain some pretty good totals.
Tom Savage is a serious downgrade, but he did one thing very right in his second start of 2017; he funneled the ball to Hopkins. Almost a third of Savage’s pass attempts went to Hopkins, and he turned those 16 targets into 6 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown.
Savage isn’t a good quarterback, but even he can be expected to throw for a 55% completion rating or better. If he keeps force feeding DeAndre Hopkins the ball, there’s going to be success.
I would expect Hopkins to see an average of 15 targets per game from here on out, and he should hit over 10 fantasy points in at least 6 of the next 8 games.
Hopkins may not finish as the #1 WR, but he’s a still a Top 20.
Adrian Peterson is Matchup-Proof
BOGUS — He’s going to be a start in almost every week, but I recommend you sit him if possible against Seattle in Week 9.
It’s great to see Peterson staying relevant in the NFL. The Cardinals have committed to AP as the 3 down back (Kerwynn Williams and Andre Ellington combined for 4 touches).
I even heaped praises on him in my week 6 Truth or Bogus. So why is he a recommended sit for me?
Well he’s coming off his career-high 37 touch game in a Cardinals win. Now they have to face the Seahawks on a short week. Producing against a top-level defense on a short week after a huge workload would be alot to ask any back, but it’s something else to ask a 32 year old to pull this off.
I’m not knocking Peterson. I have to assume he’s still in as good of shape as just about any back in this league. But the body needs time to bounce back after exertion, and Peterson definitely exerted.
There will be big games for Peterson, but I don’t think this Thursday will be one of them. Look for him to put up 40 yards on 15 carries, if he gets in the endzone it’s a bonus.
Marvin Jones Jr. Is a WR1
TRUTH — Jones has been offered a chance to shine, and he’s done exactly that. Over the past 4 weeks he has been the number 1 WR in fantasy football, and he’s received no respect thus far for his accomplishment.
It seems obvious that the Lions decided back in week 6 that they needed to get him the ball more. He was targeted 14 times and caught 6 of those attempts for 92 yards and a TD. He has followed that up with 2 straight 100+ yard games, in which he’s been targeted 11 times.
The Lions have found a weapon in Jones Jr. that they haven’t had since Calvin Johnson. Now, Jones is no Megatron. But he provides the Lions with a strong, skilled and speedy receiver to draw “X” receiver targets while Detroit chases down an NFC playoff spot.
The touchdowns are more than likely going to be spotty, but if he’s going to be drawing 10+ targets from a QB like Matt Stafford, he is going to succeed.
Golden Tate, being the slot receiver, doesn’t offer any direct competition to his current game script. The both of them should be started week-in and week-out as potential WR1s, but Jones is the better play at this point.
Josh Gordon Should be Rostered by WR-Needy Owners
BOGUS— There’s plenty of reasons to want Josh Gordon on your roster. His 117 yard-per-game 2013, his almost immediate impact to Cleveland’s roster, and his newfound sobriety.
But as many reasons as there are to go and get Josh Gordon, there are many more to avoid him.
First, let’s not forget that he’s now attempted an NFL comeback 3 times, after failing to stay clean during the first two. Maybe third time is a charm, and for Gordon’s sake I hope that’s true. But his reputation does precede him.
Second, his role is yet to be determined. Corey Coleman is due back this week as well, and he was destined to be the top WR in Cleveland. He’s done more for this team over the past two years than Gordon has.
Third, he really only had one great season to begin with. He came back in 2014 to play 5 games, in which he managed 60 yards per game. That’s a decent number, but it’s nothing compared to his 1600 yard 2013.
And finally, the Cleveland offense is just not likely to support a WR1. They have been absolutely brutal thus far, and DeShone Kizer is a big part of that problem. They are also less likely now to produce high-scoring receivers as they are still without a win and completely out of the playoff picture.
With their offensive woes, and the fact the the 0–8 Browns have nothing to play for anymore, Gordon is not a guy I’m picking up.
That’s it from me this week. I am rooting for all of you in Week 9. Get out there and apply these truths and boguses and get yourself to the top of your league’s ladder.
Mitch Lawson is a Canadian based Fantasy Football enthusiast and lifelong Seahawks fan. If you have questions or comments, send him an email at mitchlawsonff@gmail.com. You can also find him on:
Sleeperbot: @PeteCarolline
reddit: Mitch1516
Twitter: @MitchLawson1
