Week 2: Confident Starts
Author: Scott Wickham (Sleeperbot @Wick)
These are some guys that are around or just outside the top 20 (top 10 for Quarterbacks) according to Fantasy Pros rankings for week two. The players mentioned are almost certainly owned and, if you’re in a league with 10 or 12 teams, you’re probably looking at them wondering whether or not you should start them.
Quarterback
Marcus Mariota @ DET Sun 1:00 PM EST
The Titans faced a very formidable defense last week in the Vikings. There were turnovers for scores that essentially won the game for Minnesota. Mariota didn’t look particularly great because of this, but it wasn’t as discouraging as most people think. First, the Titans threw the ball 41 times in a close, low-scoring game. Second, that Minnesota defense is good, and I mean good. The Lions defense is not the Vikings defense. They gave up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last week as Andrew Luck just absolutely dissected the secondary on his way to 385 yards and 4 touchdowns, including three to his Tight Ends (more on why this is important shortly).
Mariota has weapons around him to give him a great chance to be very successful in a favorable matchup. He’s also got an improved offensive line from a year ago. Both running backs were involved in the passing game and DeMarco Murray even went for two scores through the air in the red zone. Their rookie wide out Sharpe looked like the clear number one option after reeling in 7 catches of 11 targets and veterans Rishard Matthews and Andre Johnson also contributed. Now, back to Tight Ends. Delanie Walker was the go-to guy in the Tennessee offense last year whether it was Mariota taking snaps or not. Both of the Colts Tight Ends made the Lions Linebackers and Safeties look silly last week. I expect that Walker will have more of a presence this week in the Titans offense.
With a favorable team matchup (Titans offense vs Lions defense) and a high volume of passing attempts, I expect Mariota to have a bounce back week and go off for a QB1 performance. If you’re streaming Quarterbacks or if you have guys like Luck or Alex Smith with some tough matchups, Mariota should be a safe start as a replacement for week two.
Running Back
TJ Yeldon @ SD Sun 4:25 PM EST
Last week the Jaguars were in the hunt for a big upset against the Packers, who were a 4.5-point favorite on the road. Surprisingly due to the Jags defense, giving up only 294 total yards to the Packers. This week they face an offense with a lot of uncertainty. Without Keenan Allen, the Chargers are searching for a new number one option on the offensive side. This is important because Running Backs almost always have better fantasy numbers when they are on the winning team (duh, Scott). The Jaguars have one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league and I really like their chances of getting points early. Combine this with a better Jacksonville defense going against a questionable offense, and you get a very good chance of Yeldon getting a ton of touches.
Another big reason I like Yeldon this week is the continued absence of Chris Ivory. Without Ivory in the mix, Yeldon played 88% of snaps for Jacksonville and got over 20 carries last week. He also got some looks out of the backfield in the passing game. As long as Yeldon is the only back in the mix, he’s going to get a high-volume, workhorse back type of workload. The most valuable aspect of selecting Running Backs in fantasy is volume. One guy that had very low volume carries last week was Spencer Ware (11 carries, 70 yards, 1 Touchdown against San Diego). Ware was also incredibly efficient in the passing game against the Chargers, when he wasn’t even supposed to be involved. With a large number of carries and going against a defense that was not efficient against Running Backs last week, I see Yeldon having himself an absolute RB2 type game with the potential of sneaking into the RB1 range.
Wide Receiver
Jordan Matthews @ CHI Mon 8:30 PM EST
With Zach Ertz likely missing the Monday Night game, Matthews looks like he’ll be the clear number one option for rookie Carson Wentz in week two. Again, I’m really big on high volume guys. That being said, Matthews got still 14 targets in week one, even with Ertz in the lineup. I fully expect that he’ll see as many, if not a few more, targets this week against the Bears. The Chicago secondary did not do a great job of stopping either Hopkins or Fuller last week. Chicago is just not a great team in general.
Unlike most rookie Quarterbacks, Wentz is not afraid to throw the ball down the field. He averaged 7.5 yards per attempt in week one. With a Quarterback that isn’t afraid to heave it, Matthews’ size and speed (6’3” and 4.46 40-yard dash), and combined with a great matchup against a suspect secondary, he should produce some WR1 numbers.
Tight End
Virgil Green vs IND Sun 4:25 PM EST
The Colts defense is bad and they’re especially bad against the pass. They allowed Eric Ebron go for five catches, 46 yards, and a touchdown last week. Matt Stafford was able to complete 79.5% of his passes at a rate of 8.7 yards per attempt. Again, the Colts defense is bad. Green tied for third on the team with five targets last week against an outstanding Panthers defense. One thing stood out to me in that matchup that I view as very favorable for Green: they ran a designed play for him near the goal line. The Broncos ran a nearly identical play for him in the preseason as well that went for a touchdown. The play against the Panthers was painfully open and looked like a clear touchdown if it wasn’t batted down at the line of scrimmage. Most Tight Ends that are not named Gronkowski, Olsen, and Reed are touchdown dependent and the Broncos feel comfortable going to Green in the red zone.
A trait of most young and inexperienced Quarterbacks is to lean on their Tight Ends, especially if they are good pass-catchers. Green is a big, athletic target that I think Siemian will look to near the goal line and when he is under pressure, which is only amplified if Thomas is unavailable for the Broncos. If Thomas is absent, I see Green getting 7–9 targets and I really like his chances of scoring against a weak Colts defense.
